A 2021 "arbitrage" bot for PancakeSwap Prediction, revisited as an empirical study. 144k on-chain rounds: naive parimutuel edges of +15–25% are erased by informed late betting — a reverse favorite–longshot bias that faded as pools deepened. Dataset, bot, and analysis reproducible in 3 commands.
MGT 595 coursework
Using high frequency bitcoin quotes from the bitcoincharts website. 🍎
Why retail trading is a coin flip — an empirical study on 10 years of DAX 1-minute data.
SQL, raw query output and market-clustered bootstraps behind the Polymarket studies published at 0xinsider.com/research
Official Python implementation of Exchange Entropy ($H_{ex}$) and Exchange Entropy Index (EEI) for financial information processing fidelity and market phase transitions.
A pre-registered search for exploitable mispricing in prediction markets: what was ruled out, at what statistical power, and four apparent edges that turned out to be sampling artifacts. Write-up and analysis code.
Comprehensive Python analysis of Premier League betting market inefficiencies (2005–2024). Evaluates bookmaker biases, betting strategies, and market efficiency using statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulations.
Market Efficiency Detector: a multi-agent system that measures Price Adjustment Latency (PAL), the delay between news and a fully adjusted price, and tests whether it is tradeable after costs.
Event-study analysis of US government contract awards and stock-market reaction for defense and aerospace contractors. Tests semi-strong market efficiency using contract data and sector-matched (ITA) Benchmarking. Includes documentation and correction from SPY to ITA.
Sequel to football-prediction-ml: ML could not beat the closing line, so this scanner stops predicting and buys mispriced odds instead. +4% avg CLV over 224 paper bets.
Modelo predictivo en entornos de alta incertidumbre para el Mundial 2026: análisis estocástico que integra variables tácticas y financieras mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo y modelos de Poisson.
Open research by Cold Code Labs: the skewness of football betting returns is a structural invariant inherited from the sport, not produced by pricing.
Market-efficiency study of Polymarket x Kalshi: 92,290 markets scanned, 215 apparent price gaps, 0 executable after audit. Ships as a visual Lab plus a live cross-platform pair terminal.
Sports-model calibration using committed predictions, outcomes, and market baselines for World Cup, MLB, and tennis.
Semantically-grounded lead-lag networks in Polymarket prediction markets
Studying market efficiency in football betting using Betfair Exchange API and live World Cup data
Research-grade Polymarket BTC Up/Down 5m data pipeline, calibration analysis, hypothesis backtests, and execution robustness.
Python-based time-series analysis of stock market volatility and market efficiency in major emerging economies with GARCH-family models.
Can predictive models beat efficient sports betting markets? Rigorous walk-forward validation across MLB and tennis — honest nulls included.
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