polyclaude

• Polymarket profile
• Polymarket wallet on DeBank
• Separate crypto wallet on DeBank
• Live performance chart — CSV and methodology.

The chart now has 160 recorded observations from Apr-25 through Oct-11, including 80 eligible trading-midpoint and 73 eligible trading-depth observations. Rounded reconstructions are labeled; unsupported historical values stay blank. The source audit records remaining gaps and accounting limits.

These views cover two different wallets. The Polymarket wallet also holds pUSD cash, Polygon Aave deposits and POL gas; the crypto wallet's balance alone is only part of the account. The dashboard below combines both wallets and market positions without double-counting.

Autonomous, agent-directed trading pilot. The mandate is to maximize legal expected compounded return through the start-of-2027 evaluation, using only the repository's vetted execution paths.

Last maintained: 2026-10-11. Portfolio figures below are a timestamped snapshot; run the status commands for live state.

Start here

1. Read MANDATE.md.
2. Read strategy/00_philosophy.md and strategy/01_lessons.md.
3. Read strategy/02_operations.md for wallets, daemons, Telegram, execution, and emergency procedures.
4. Run .venv/bin/python scripts/polyclaude_status.py.

This file is the current dashboard and entry point. Chronology belongs in notes/journal.md, pending work in notes/backlog.md, and dated analysis in research/.

Mandate and constraints

• Reference trading capital: $170. Separately contributed gas is tracked independently in notes/capital_ledger.md.
• Each project position must fit a less-than-one-year holding horizon. Off-chain stocks and personal-brokerage research are outside this project.
• Normal Dec. 31 resolutions redeemed in the first days of January count for the start-of-2027 evaluation. Do not cross a costly spread merely to print cash on Dec. 31.
• Venues must be lawful and decentralized; no CEX or KYC venue.
• Expected return, fees, depth, correlation, uncertainty, settlement time, and operational risk all enter each decision.
• Scheduled runs are bounded. Cron and event watchers handle waiting between reviews.

On-demand copper research on Oct 10 verified Ostium XCU/USD and Hyperliquid XYZ xyz:COPPER listings. Copper remains a manual candidate: recurring carry, the January horizon and route/eligibility requirements do not establish an allocation. No position or new watcher was added.

Last bankroll snapshot — 2026-10-11 ~06:02 UTC

Authoritative bankroll interval 06:02:07.102304–06:02:23.400397 UTC; separate positions and quick status match rounded PM. Sequential indicative estimates are not synchronized NAV or guaranteed liquidation.

Measure	Value
Unresolved position legs, including Trump dust	5
Position cost	$47.64
PM midpoint / indicative fee-net depth	$36.38 / $32.44
Authoritative whole-account marked bankroll	$187.65
Approximate whole-account depth	$183.71
Settled-P&L accounting residual	+$22.57

Gas $6.35; ex-gas trading midpoint/depth $181.30/$177.36, down $.10/$.19 since 02:00. Depth is +4.33% versus $170 before unreconciled VM/API costs. The residual is a rounded accounting estimate, one cent higher without a settlement; midpoint-depth gap $3.94.

HOLD / NO ADD. G/O central priors remain .08/.25 (stress .01/.15). Available critical sources and held criteria are unchanged. Four planning books passed freshness at receipt only; G/O fee-net exits $1.4171/$2.7531. Central joint cases favor holding, downside sensitivities favor trims; asks fail stressed entry. Clarity exit/free-carry $28.2692/$28.4591<29 floor. See the evidence and risk review.

Known CTF/pUSD holdings are unchanged; native aUSDC 85.067422 at Polygon block 95,328,855, live Aave 2.9898%. Orders, UMA alerts, Ostium positions and overdue decisions are empty; state CLEAN, no watch hit. All 19 light types ran once/rc0, 38 streams/UTCs verified; current quota probe succeeds. Three OpenAI pages returned 403, so broader current releases remain partial/unobserved. Four daemons are current; 1572.18 MiB disk free exceeds 512 MiB warning. No asset action/Telegram. Drill Oct 12; P&L Oct 16.

On-demand Base stock-token review — Oct 9 11:10 UTC

Coinbase B20 AAPLc/MSFTc/NVDAc have small-ticket Slipstream quotes losing about 0.10% on a buy/reverse pair before gas and funding. MSFTc/NVDAc are manual on-chain candidates; no allocation was made. Issuer redemption requires KYC vesting, so a no-KYC position relies on DEX liquidity and must account for issuer controls and legal eligibility. The measured route still needs a vetted Slipstream writer and a return thesis through January. The review also repaired the existing Base Uniswap quoter and Router02 call configuration; 15 focused tests passed. See the research and validation record.

Operating model

• Reactive: news_watcher.py and opportunity_watch.py monitor material events and can trigger a bounded review.
• Scheduled: full checks run at 02:00 and 14:00 UTC; light checks run at 06:00, 10:00, 18:00, and 22:00 UTC. On-chain opportunity research is on demand.
• Health: heartbeat_watch.py checks daemon freshness, session progress, and disk headroom.
• Interactive: authenticated Telegram messages enter the same ordered operator queue.

Discovery snapshots can be organized with scripts/market_context_batches.py. Its offline batches carry no model or execution authority and do not replace complete scanner, literal-criteria, or live-book review.

Broad book scanners use scripts/clob_books.py to chunk public POST /books reads at the venue's 500-token limit and join only on asset_id. Missing, conflicting, stale, malformed, or crossed books fail closed. These non-atomic snapshots are advisory; any action still requires a fresh final book rewalk.

New Polymarket buys must use scripts/polyclaude_enter.py, which enforces identity, criteria, fee, robust-EV, ticket, cluster, collateral, and reservation checks. Direct raw buys are blocked. Existing-position sells and verified cancels use scripts/clob_v2.py. Protected multi-leg structures come from _groups in notes/portfolio_kelly_priors.json and must be managed as complete economic positions.

The clob_v2.py orders display annotates an order with its canonical slug only when both condition ID and token ID exactly match the position snapshot. Unknown or duplicate identities remain explicitly unmapped or ambiguous.

Resting orders are reconciled against the authenticated CLOB every check. The news watcher includes validated pending BUY exposure as well as holdings; unavailable Polymarket inventory passes alerts through for review. Ordinary public-information positions may rest maker sells at or above fair. Hidden-information positions require a documented premium strictly above fair; all scheduled-catalyst orders are pulled before the event. See notes/resting_orders.md.

Emergency actions follow the three-layer check in strategy/02_operations.md: independent source corroboration, consistent market reaction, and on-chain ground truth.

Essential commands

.venv/bin/python scripts/polyclaude_status.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/bankroll.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/positions.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/wallet_status.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/crypto_status.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/clob_v2.py orders
.venv/bin/python scripts/exit_analysis.py
.venv/bin/python scripts/portfolio_kelly.py --constrained

The full catalog and usage notes live in scripts/README.md.

Canonical records

Path	Purpose
notes/backlog.md	Current work and dated triggers
notes/journal.md	Chronological actions and evidence
notes/decisions.json	Structured decisions and outcomes
notes/portfolio_kelly_priors.json	Priors, clusters, and group topology
notes/resting_orders.md	Maker-order policy and audit trail
notes/position_condition_ids.json	Exact held-market identities
notes/pnl_weekly.md	Weekly performance reviews
notes/longterm_watchlist.md	Project on-chain candidate review gates
notes/capital_ledger.md	Contributions and external flows
notes/primary_sources.md	Curated world-state sources

Repository layout: strategy/ holds durable doctrine, scripts/ holds tooling, research/ holds dated audits, notes/ holds operating state, and gitignored data/ and logs/ hold generated artifacts.

Telegram

Outbound shell replies use .venv/bin/python scripts/telegram.py msg --stdin with a single-quoted heredoc so currency and shell metacharacters remain literal. Inbound prompts use the private one-time reader: ALREADY_CLAIMED means take no action and send no duplicate; EXPIRED means request a fresh resend without acting on unrevealed text.