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ManuelPG21/README.md

Hi, I'm Manuel Polo

Data Scientist focused on statistical modeling, interpretable machine learning and auditable Generative AI.

I have a B.Sc. in Physics and I care about evidence: fair baselines, honest uncertainty, and knowing when a difference is real and when it is noise. The repositories below are personal projects built in my own time with public data.

Personal projects

Project What it shows
Pricing & Experimentation Lab Price elasticity on 1M real transactions (DuckDB SQL, fixed effects, empirical-Bayes shrinkage), a bias found and corrected, and A/B-test sizing with CUPED
Colombian Electricity Demand Forecasting SARIMAX, LightGBM and an ensemble on public XM data; 2-year rolling-origin backtest, Diebold-Mariano tests, conformal intervals, MLflow
Symbolic Regression Insights PySR recovers Kepler's third law from NASA exoplanet data; readable formula vs gradient boosting on concrete strength
arXiv RAG Search FastAPI hybrid-retrieval RAG over public arXiv abstracts with an evaluation harness, citation checks, local LLM, Docker and CI
Campaign Decisioning Lab Leakage-aware propensity model that ranks outreach under a contact budget: calibration, lift, capture, bootstrap intervals
BriefSpec Auditable GenAI triage with Amazon Bedrock structured outputs, strict validation and a synthetic offline evaluation

Stack

Python · SQL · statsmodels · scikit-learn · LightGBM · PyTorch · PySR · pandas · Polars · DuckDB · Amazon Bedrock · SageMaker · MLflow · FastAPI · Docker · Git

A few signals

  • Five AWS certifications, including Machine Learning – Specialty, Machine Learning Engineer – Associate and Generative AI Developer – Professional.
  • Coauthor of a peer-reviewed article in Journal of Physics A (DOI).
  • Spanish (native), English (C1). Based in Bogotá, Colombia; open to remote data science roles.

Connect

Portfolio · LinkedIn · ORCID · Email

These are independent personal projects on open data. They contain no employer, client or academic code, data, prompts or business rules.

Popular repositories Loading

  1. Clustering_Microbiota Clustering_Microbiota Public

    Forked from pudin2/Biostatistical_Toolkit

    Jupyter Notebook

  2. liquidacion-soat liquidacion-soat Public

    Calculadora gratuita para liquidar cirugías con el manual tarifario SOAT (UVB · UVT · SMDLV) — Decreto 780 de 2016

    HTML

  3. data-ml-portfolio data-ml-portfolio Public

    Evidence-first portfolio for data science, machine learning, and auditable GenAI on AWS.

    Python

  4. pricing-experimentation-lab pricing-experimentation-lab Public

    Price elasticity and A/B-test design (CUPED, power analysis) on 1M real retail transactions with DuckDB SQL and statsmodels.

    Python

  5. energy-demand-forecasting energy-demand-forecasting Public

    14-day forecasts of Colombian electricity demand (XM): SARIMAX, LightGBM, ensemble, rolling-origin backtest, Diebold-Mariano tests, conformal intervals, MLflow.

    Python

  6. arxiv-rag-search arxiv-rag-search Public

    Personal project: hybrid BM25 + embedding RAG over public arXiv abstracts with FastAPI, a local LLM (Ollama), citation checks and an evaluation harness tracked in MLflow.

    Python